The full scorecard
Every sign the Weimar Clock scores, with its source and what would advance it. The plain-language summary is on the main page.
Scored Jun 12 2026 · Stage 3 of 6 · The smart money leaves first
Each sign reads: confirmed ●, starting ◐, absent ○, or not yet measured ·. Absent signs are shown as plainly as confirmed ones.
The Stage 4 and Stage 5 boards are early-warning boards: if the idea is honest they should read mostly absent today.
A. Debasement core
does the secular trend hold?
| # | Gauge | Reading (Jun 12 2026) | Source | What would advance the clock | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | A1 | S&P/Gold ratio trend | Gold -15% off Mar blow-off; ratio bounce within secular downtrend | Public market data (S&P 500, gold) | Sustained ratio downtrend = debasement intact |
| · | A2 | CPI streak vs target | 5th consecutive year above target; core 2.82% w/ Fed "pause" | BLS CPI releases | 6th consecutive year = Stage 2 permanence confirmed |
| · | A3 | Real policy rate through easing cycles | Mildly positive headline; negative vs asset inflation | CME FedWatch, BLS CPI | Easing with CPI >3% = put exercised at the unit's expense |
| · | A4 | US net liquidity / M2 | Expanding | FRED (M2, net liquidity) | Reliquification during next drawdown = Test 1 |
| · | A5 | Mag 7→10 aggregate cap | $21.6T (+SpaceX $1.77T pending day-1) | Public market-cap data | $25T / $35T / $50T / $100T alert milestones |
B. Stage-3 gauges
the current chapter — top-down flight
| # | Gauge | Reading (Jun 12 2026) | Source | What would advance the clock | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | B1 | CB gold buying (price-insensitive bid) | Record since 2022; the price-insensitive bid continues | World Gold Council quarterlies | Acceleration post-gold-correction = flight durable, not momentum |
| ● | B2 | Sovereign/corporate BTC | Mubadala, ADIC, SpaceX 18,712 BTC in IPO docs | Public filings, IPO documents | First G7 official adoption = B-layer complete |
| · | B3 | Foreign official share of Treasury holdings | Baseline pending — first scoring run | Treasury TIC data | Sustained decline while issuance grows = clock accelerating |
| ● | B4 | Luxury-first spread (premiumization) | PPI 6.5% YoY; premium-tier pricing power intact | Earnings calls, BLS PPI | Luxury pricing power FAILING = framework falsifier watch |
| · | B5 | Top-10% spending share | ≈50% (record) | FT / Moody's series | Trend up = K-structure deepening |
| ● | B6 | "Two-economy" perception gap | Vibecession structure persistent since 2022 | UMich sentiment vs GDP, unemployment | Gap WIDENING = distributional signature intensifying |
C. Stage-4 early-warning
public flight — all should be ⚪; any 🟡 is news
| # | Gauge | Reading (Jun 12 2026) | Source | What would advance the clock | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ○ | C1 | M2 velocity | Baseline pending — no public-flight signature known | FRED M2V | ≥4 quarters sustained uptrend |
| ◐ | C2 | Stablecoin float + tokenized real assets | Stablecoins legalized & scaling (Notgeld stage); goods-denominated instruments negligible | Public filings, issuer disclosures | Goods-denominated >$100B = Stage 4 trigger component |
| ○ | C3 | Household cash-holding behavior | MMF balances high (still trust-in-yield, not flight) | ICI money-market fund flows | Cash held DESPITE yield falling = aversion, not optimization |
| ○ | C4 | Repricing cadence (menu psychology) | Annual repricing still norm | Consumer contract renewal terms | Monthly/dynamic repricing spreading to staples |
| ○ | C5 | Wage-indexation demands | Sporadic | Union settlements, COLA coverage | COLA clauses as strike-issue norm = spiral institutionalizing |
D. Stage-5 early-warning
the farmers barometer
| # | Gauge | Reading (Jun 12 2026) | Source | What would advance the clock | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | D1 | Auction tails / bid-to-cover on 10y-30y | Baseline pending — establish normal range on first run | Treasury auction results | Repeated tails >2bp on 30y; any failed auction |
| · | D2 | Term premium | Baseline pending | ACM term premium (FRED) | Sustained rise THROUGH Fed easing = bid demanding compensation |
| ◐ | D3 | Treasury buybacks / issuance gymnastics | Buyback program active; bill-heavy issuance tilt (stealth duration retreat) | Treasury QRA statements | Buybacks growing as % of issuance = managed market |
| ○ | D4 | YCC / forced-buying in respectable discourse | Absent from official discourse | Fed speeches, working papers | Any Fed official floats it = 🔴 immediate |
| · | D5 | Long-bond response to easing | UNTESTED — the live Test-3 instrument | Market data at next pivot | Bonds + dollar selling off together INTO easing = "rescue stops working" |
E. Political-cultural gauges
cross-stage; the book's social sequence
| # | Gauge | Weimar anchor | Reading (Jun 12 2026) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ◐ | E1 | Price-control reflex | Rent restriction "first and cheapest device" | Mamdani rent freeze, price-gouging bills — the reflex is live |
| ◐ | E2 | Performative enforcement | Anti-gluttony bill, Wucherpolizei raids | Greedflation hearings, windfall-tax theater |
| ● | E3 | Statistics fights | Cost-of-living index "cooked" by 1925 | BLS commissioner fired over a print (2025); methodology politicized |
| ◐ | E4 | Scapegoat rotation | Tourists → peasants → industrialists → Jews | Billionaires/immigrants/landlords/algorithms rotating; antisemitism resurgent |
| ◐ | E5 | Radicalization / authority appetite | "Amenable to authority... loud, bold voice"; middle class going Nazi | Both-flank populism; democracy-fatigue polling; political violence normalized |
| ● | E6 | Adventure cohort | Youth remembering inflation "as an adventure" | Memecoin/0DTE/sports-book generation — volatility as the only ladder |
| ● | E7 | Quality collapse (cheapjack) | Three bad boots vs one good pair | Shrinkflation, platform decay — debasement reaching stable-nominal-price goods |
F. Tests & falsifiers
run during any −20% drawdown
- Policy response 60–90d — reliquification = cyclical (expected: passes every time until the boundary; see honest-column note below).
- New ATH ≤18mo — >24mo = Japan path, framework BROKEN.
- S&P/Gold + gold/BTC behavior through the drawdown — THE live test; falling ratio = debasement intact; everything-down-vs-cash 3+mo = deflationary break.
- Japan-1989 falsifier standing. AI-deflation falsifier: services CPI breaking down while caps rise. Luxury falsifier: LVMH/RL organic declines + premiumization reversing.
Honest-column note on Test 1: Weimar says the rescue ALWAYS comes — Test 1 will pass by construction every cycle. Its real information is in HOW the rescue trades (D5). A passed Test 1 with failing D5 is the regime boundary, not a confirmation.